Australia NAB Business Confidence

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

AUD

Actual:

Forecast: -5

Previous/Revision:

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The NAB Business Confidence index measures the level of confidence businesses have in the economic prospects within Australia. It primarily assesses expectations regarding sales, employment, and profitability, as well as investment intentions, with key indicators typically ranging above 0 indicating optimism and below 0 signifying pessimism, reflecting a national indicator of business sentiment.

Frequency

This index is released monthly, with preliminary estimates generally published in the first week of each month, providing timely insight into business confidence and economic conditions.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the NAB Business Confidence index as it serves as an indicator of business sentiment that can affect financial markets, influencing the Australian dollar (AUD), stocks, and bonds. Higher-than-expected confidence can signal potential economic expansion, leading to bullish sentiment in the markets, while lower readings may result in bearish repercussions.

What Is It Derived From?

The NAB Business Confidence index is derived from surveys conducted with a representative sample of businesses across various sectors in Australia. This survey collects qualitative data on business expectations regarding key factors such as sales, profits, and hiring, employing a diffusion index methodology to quantify the sentiment.

Description

The NAB Business Confidence index presents an important gauge of the health of the Australian economy as perceived by the business sector, reflecting their anticipated conditions for the following months. Since it focuses on future expectations, it is chiefly regarded as a leading indicator, potentially providing early signals about economic activity before they manifest in traditional economic data.

Additional Notes

This index can be related to other indicators of business and consumer sentiment, such as the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, and serves as a coincident measure that indicates current economic performance. Strong confidence levels may correlate with trends like increased hiring and investment expenditure, while prolonged low confidence can foreshadow downturns.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for AUD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for AUD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jul 08, 2025		5	-5	2	10