United States MBA Mortgage Refinance Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

829.3

Forecast:

Previous/Revision:

759.7

Period: Jul/04

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jul/11

What Does It Measure?

The MBA Mortgage Refinance Index measures the volume of refinancing activity by mortgage applicants in the United States, specifically focusing on refinancing applications as a share of total mortgage applications. This index provides insights into homeowners' willingness to refinance their mortgages based on interest rates, as well as overall housing market conditions.

Frequency

This index is published weekly, typically released on Wednesdays, and represents preliminary estimates of refinancing activity that may be subject to revisions in subsequent reports.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders focus on the MBA Mortgage Refinance Index because it directly reflects housing market health and consumer behavior regarding mortgages, impacting financial markets significantly. An increase in refinancing applications often indicates lower interest rates that may boost spending, while a decline can lead to concerns over housing market vitality, influencing currencies, stocks, and bonds.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey conducted by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) that includes data from a variety of mortgage lenders across the United States. The calculations involve the number of refinancing applications received in a given week, weighted to represent the overall market activity accurately.

Description

Preliminary reports provide early insights into refinancing trends, whereas final reports are released later with more comprehensive data; traders often react more strongly to these preliminary reports due to their timely nature. The index primarily uses a week-over-week comparison to highlight immediate changes in the refinancing market.

Additional Notes

The MBA Mortgage Refinance Index serves as a leading economic indicator, suggesting shifts in consumer confidence and potential future spending based on refinancing activity. This index can also be compared to other housing-related indicators such as housing starts and home sales, highlighting broader economic trends in the real estate sector.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bearish for Currency, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jul 09, 2025		829.3		759.7
Jul 02, 2025		759.7		713.4