United States Inflation Rate MoM

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 0.2%

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The United States Inflation Rate MoM measures the percentage change in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services in the U.S. from one month to the next, primarily focusing on inflationary pressures that affect consumer purchasing power. Key indicators include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its components such as food, energy, and other essential goods, with a value above 0% signifying inflation and below indicating deflation.

Frequency

This economic event is released on a monthly basis, typically published around the middle of the following month and provides a preliminary estimate that may be revised later.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the inflation rate as it significantly influences central bank monetary policy and can impact interest rates, making it crucial for financial markets. Higher-than-expected inflation readings can lead to an appreciation of the U.S. dollar and affect equity prices, while lower readings may suggest economic weakness, influencing negative sentiment in markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The inflation rate is derived from the Consumer Price Index, which is calculated based on a survey of prices across various sectors reflecting consumer spending. This includes data collection from retail establishments and service providers, focusing on price changes of a representative basket of goods and services consumed by urban households.

Description

Preliminary data represents early estimates based on available information and is subject to revisions for greater accuracy later on; meanwhile, final reports reflect a more comprehensive analysis. Monthly comparisons (MoM) are especially useful for identifying short-term shifts in inflationary trends that can signal potential fluctuations in economic activity.

Additional Notes

This inflation measure is considered a coincident economic indicator, reflecting current economic conditions and consumer behavior. It is closely related to other inflation metrics and serves as a critical measure of price stability, impacting broader economic trends not just in the U.S. but also globally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates due to inflation concerns, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise