New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: GlobalDairyTrade

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jul/15

What Does It Measure?

The New Zealand Global Dairy Trade (GDT) Price Index measures the price changes of dairy products sold through the GDT trading platform. It primarily focuses on the average price of dairy commodities such as milk powder, cheese, and butter, providing insights into supply and demand conditions in the global dairy market, which is particularly crucial for New Zealand, a major exporter.

Frequency

The GDT Price Index is released biweekly, typically on the first and third Tuesday of each month, and it reflects the prices achieved in the preceding auction.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the GDT Price Index as it significantly influences the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and reflects global dairy demand dynamics, impacting related assets such as dairy stocks and agricultural commodities. Expectations for higher prices can lead to bullish sentiment in the NZD, while lower-than-expected prices may have bearish implications for both the currency and dairy-related equities.

What Is It Derived From?

The GDT Price Index is derived from actual trading results of dairy products sold on the GDT auction platform, collected from a broad range of international buyers and sellers involved in dairy product trading. The index employs a weighted average calculation, representing price movements of various dairy products based on their sales volumes in each auction.

Description

Preliminary reports of the GDT Price Index are based on early auction results and may be subject to adjustments, while final reports provide the confirmed figures after all data is finalized. The index is reported on a quarter-over-quarter basis, emphasizing medium-term trends in dairy prices, and is particularly useful for traders seeking to gauge seasonal fluctuations in dairy production and pricing.

Additional Notes

The GDT Price Index serves as a coincident indicator within the agricultural sector as it reflects current market conditions rather than predicting future economic performance. It is often compared to other agricultural price indices and can impact overall trade balances, economic forecasts, and strategies in the broader New Zealand economy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for NZD, Bullish for dairy stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for NZD, Bearish for dairy stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise