United States EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

-0.099M

Forecast:

Previous/Revision:

0.118M

Period: Jul/04

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jul/11

What Does It Measure?

The United States EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change measures the change in the amount of crude oil processed by U.S. refineries during a specific period, typically assessing production activity, energy demand, and overall supply chain dynamics within the fuel market. It focuses on key components such as refinery capacity utilization, operational status, and the implications for gasoline and distillate production, serving as a national indicator of energy sector performance.

Frequency

This indicator is released weekly, typically on Wednesdays, as a preliminary estimate based on the previous week's data.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor this indicator as it directly impacts the price of crude oil, gasoline, and related energy commodities; higher-than-expected crude runs can signal increased product supply and potentially lower prices, while lower runs may indicate supply constraints and higher prices. The timely release of this data is critical for forecasting market movements and making informed trading decisions.

What Is It Derived From?

The EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change is calculated based on data reported by U.S. refineries regarding their crude oil intake and processing capacities, utilizing surveys and historical data aggregation to create a reliable measure of refinery activity. The EIA employs standardized methodologies for data collection and reporting, ensuring a consistent approach across different refineries.

Description

The EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change provides insights into refinery throughput, which is a significant indicator of both current demand and future supply trends for fuel products in the market. Given the nature of this event, it plays a role as a coincident indicator, reflecting real-time conditions in the energy sector rather than future expectations.

Additional Notes

This indicator can be examined alongside gasoline inventories, crude oil inventories, and seasonal consumption patterns to gauge broader trends in the energy market. As a coincident indicator, the EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change serves as an essential barometer for analysts assessing the health of the refinery sector and its influence on fuel pricing dynamics across the U.S. economy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Oil Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Oil Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jul 09, 2025		-0.099M		0.118M
Jul 02, 2025		0.118M		0.125M