United States EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

0.059M

Forecast:

Previous/Revision:

0.245M

Period: Jul/04

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jul/11

What Does It Measure?

The United States EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change measures the weekly production levels of distillate fuel oil in the U.S. It focuses on key areas such as energy supply, consumption trends, and the overall health of the oil refining sector, with crucial indicators including production volumes and inventory levels, aiding in assessing energy markets.

Frequency

This report is released weekly, specifically every Wednesday, and presents both preliminary and final figures reflecting the current state of distillate fuel production.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor this indicator as it has significant implications for energy prices, impacting the trading of commodities such as crude oil and natural gas, as well as stock prices of energy companies. Changes in distillate fuel production can influence market expectations around energy supply and demand, which in turn affect currencies linked to commodity exports.

What Is It Derived From?

The EIA distillate fuel production data is derived from surveys conducted among refineries across the United States, reporting their production levels. It relies on industry-standard estimates and statistical methodologies to compile and analyze production data, ensuring comprehensive coverage of the sector.

Description

The EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change report provides insight into the weekly production fluctuations of distillate fuels, which include heating oil and diesel. This data helps understand energy supply dynamics, influencing pricing strategies in both domestic and overseas markets.

Additional Notes

This indicator serves as a coincident measure of economic activity, reflecting real-time changes in energy production that affect broader economic trends such as inflation and consumer spending. It is particularly relevant for understanding the refining sector's capacity and responsiveness to market demands, often compared against crude oil inventory reports and gasoline production statistics.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. The hawkish tone: Signaling higher energy supply concerns or demand shifts is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to potential inflation implications.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jul 09, 2025		0.059M		0.245M
Jul 02, 2025		0.245M		-0.185M