United States Core Inflation Rate MoM

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 0.2%

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The Core Inflation Rate MoM measures the change in the price level of goods and services excluding food and energy on a month-over-month basis, providing insights into underlying inflation trends. It focuses on evaluating the stability of prices to gauge inflationary pressures impacting the economy, particularly consumer purchasing power.

Frequency

This report is released monthly, typically around the middle of the month, and features preliminary estimates that may be revised in subsequent reports.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor core inflation as it serves as a key indicator of price stability, influencing monetary policy and interest rate decisions made by the Federal Reserve. Higher-than-expected core inflation readings could signal tightening monetary policy, impacting asset classes such as currencies, stocks, and bonds.

What Is It Derived From?

The Core Inflation Rate is derived from the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which involves a comprehensive survey of prices collected from various urban consumers, with specific attention to the prices of a basket of goods and services. Data is gathered through established methodologies that ensure the reliability and relevance of the measured inflation trends.

Description

Core Inflation is reported as a month-over-month (MoM) change, which compares the most recent data against the previous month, highlighting short-term inflation trends and providing timely insights into economic conditions. This approach is favored as it captures immediate shifts in consumer prices, essential for understanding month-to-month fluctuations in purchasing power.

Additional Notes

As a measure of inflation, the Core Inflation Rate is mainly a lagging indicator, with its trends reflecting past economic conditions while informing future monetary policy. It is closely watched in conjunction with other inflation measures, contributing to a broader understanding of economic health and price dynamics.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise