United States Consumer Inflation Expectations

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The United States Consumer Inflation Expectations measure the anticipated rate of inflation over a specific period, typically the next year and the next five years, as perceived by consumers. This indicator primarily focuses on household expectations regarding price changes, providing insights into spending behavior, saving decisions, and overall economic sentiment.

Frequency

This report is released on a monthly basis and consists of preliminary estimates, typically published on the first Tuesday of each month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor consumer inflation expectations because they serve as a key indicator of future inflation trends, which can influence monetary policy decisions. Significant changes in expectations can affect currency values, equity markets, and bond yields, as shifts in inflation forecasts may lead to changes in interest rates set by the Federal Reserve.

What Is It Derived From?

Consumer inflation expectations are derived from a survey that collects responses from a diverse group of U.S. households regarding their views on future price levels. The survey typically utilizes a random sampling method to ensure broad representation, and responses are aggregated to calculate the average expected inflation rate.

Description

Preliminary reports are based on initial survey responses and can subject to revisions when final data is released. This indicator utilizes a Month-over-Month (MoM) reporting method for short-term analysis and offers insights that are crucial for understanding shifts in consumer sentiment regarding inflation.

Additional Notes

Consumer inflation expectations are generally considered a leading economic indicator that can foretell future inflation trends. They relate closely to other economic metrics such as wage growth and actual consumer price indices, reflecting how consumers anticipate broader economic conditions to evolve.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise