France Balance of Trade

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Next Release:

Date:

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The France Balance of Trade measures the difference between the value of its exports and imports of goods and services within a specific period, primarily focusing on the trade of physical goods. Key indicators include exports, imports, and the resultant trade balance, which indicates whether France is a net exporter or importer, influencing the national economy.

Frequency

The Balance of Trade is released monthly, typically providing a preliminary estimate that may be revised in subsequent reports, and is usually published around the end of the month following the reporting period.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Balance of Trade as it indicates the health of France's economy and influences currency strength, stock values, and investor sentiment; a positive trade balance is typically bullish for the Euro (EUR) and may support stock prices. Conversely, a negative balance could lead to a bearish outlook on the currency and equities, affecting market predictions and investment decisions.

What Is It Derived From?

The Balance of Trade is calculated using data collected from customs-information systems, which track international transactions involving goods and services. The report stems from thorough surveys of businesses engaged in importing and exporting activities and incorporates adjustments for inflation and seasonality.

Description

The Balance of Trade report distinguishes between preliminary estimates and final figures, where preliminary data represents early estimates likely to be revised as more information becomes available, while final figures reflect confirmed statistics that may alter market perceptions. This report utilizes a Year-over-Year (YoY) comparison method, which is favored as it effectively contextualizes the data within broader economic cycles and eliminates seasonal variations.

Additional Notes

The Balance of Trade serves as a coincident economic indicator, reflecting current economic conditions and trends. It is intrinsically linked to broader economic performance, influencing other economic metrics such as GDP and may show disparities compared to similar indicators across the EU and globally, providing insights into trade dynamics and currency movements.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks. Given the sensitivity of the Balance of Trade to economic shifts, market reactions can fluctuate significantly based on actual values compared to forecasts.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise