United States 3-Month Bill Auction

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Federal Reserve

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The United States 3-Month Bill Auction measures the government's ability to fund its short-term borrowing needs by issuing 13-week treasury bills. This auction primarily assesses demand for U.S. Treasury securities, reflecting investor confidence and market liquidity, with key indicators including bid-to-cover ratios and accepted yields.

Frequency

This auction occurs on a weekly basis, specifically on Mondays, with results released shortly after the auction concludes.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the 3-Month Bill Auction as it signals the government's borrowing costs and influences short-term interest rates. Strong demand can lead to lower yields, which may bolster the USD and impact asset prices, while weak demand could have adverse effects on market sentiment and treasury prices.

What Is It Derived From?

The auction results are derived from competitive bids submitted by a range of market participants, including institutional investors and banks, utilizing a process known as a Dutch auction. The accepted bids determine the yield on the treasury bills, influenced by factors such as prevailing interest rates and investor sentiment.

Description

The results of the 3-Month Bill Auction provide insights into the investor demand for government debt, informing traders about market conditions and potential economic outlooks. Financial markets often react swiftly to these results as they reflect broader economic health and fiscal policy conditions.

Additional Notes

This auction serves as a coincident economic measure as it reflects immediate investor sentiment and governmental funding capability. Additionally, the auction results can be compared to other treasury bill auctions and economic indicators to gauge overall market health and liquidity.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected demand: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected demand: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise