United States API Crude Oil Stock Change

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: American Petroleum Institute (API)

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

2.94M

USD

Actual:

0.68M

Forecast: -2.26M

Previous/Revision:

-4.277M

Period: Jun/27

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jul/04

What Does It Measure?

The United States API Crude Oil Stock Change measures the week-over-week change in the quantity of crude oil inventories held by U.S. firms. It focuses on supply levels in the oil market, impacting production, demand forecasts, and pricing dynamics in the energy sector.

Frequency

This report is released weekly, typically on Tuesday evenings, and provides a preliminary estimate of crude oil stock changes, which is subject to revisions.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor this indicator closely as it provides insight into supply trends and potential price movements in the crude oil market. A larger-than-expected decrease in stock levels can lead to bullish sentiment for oil prices and related assets, while an increase may lead to bearish responses across commodities and energy stocks.

What Is It Derived From?

The API Crude Oil Stock Change is derived from surveys conducted among petroleum industry operators and refineries, providing data on oil stock levels. The American Petroleum Institute employs a methodology that utilizes weighted averages to interpret the responses and produce the final figures.

Description

The API Crude Oil Stock Change is often seen as a leading indicator of market trends, providing crucial data about inventory levels that influence oil prices. Traders regard this report's preliminary figures as essential, as they allow for timely adjustments to their strategies in anticipation of the final figures released later by the Department of Energy (DOE).

Additional Notes

This indicator is considered a coincident measure, reflecting current supply conditions in relation to demand. Its trends can correlate with broader oil market dynamics and are often compared with other inventory reports, such as the DOE's figures, to gauge the overall health of the oil sector regionally and globally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jul 01, 2025		0.68M	-2.26M	-4.277M	2.94M