Canada CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 2.7%

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The Canada CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY measures the year-over-year change in the price level of a basket of goods and services, excluding the most volatile items like food and energy. This indicator focuses on underlying inflation trends by assessing core inflation and its impact on purchasing power and economic stability at a national level.

Frequency

This indicator is released monthly, typically providing final figures for the previous month around the 18th of each following month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the CPI Trimmed-Mean as it provides insights into inflationary pressures that influence monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Canada. Higher-than-expected results are generally seen as bullish for the Canadian dollar (CAD) and could lead to a positive response in equities, while weaker numbers may signal bearish trends.

What Is It Derived From?

The CPI Trimmed-Mean is derived from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by calculating the average price changes while excluding the most extreme values. It typically involves data collected from a wide range of consumer goods and services, with a method of trimming the distribution to eliminate outliers.

Description

This indicator differentiates itself from traditional CPI measures by focusing on a more stable inflation gauge, which helps in forecasting the economy's growth trajectory. Preliminary data provides early insights into inflation trends but may be revised in final reports, which offer a more complete reflection of price changes in consumer goods.

Additional Notes

The CPI Trimmed-Mean is considered a coincident economic measure that reflects current inflation conditions influencing consumer behavior. It is often compared to other inflation metrics, such as the headline CPI, and serves as a critical tool for assessing broader economic stability and extending implications on both national and global trends.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CAD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CAD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support is usually good for the CAD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise