United States 10-Year Note Auction

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The United States 10-Year Note Auction measures the demand for U.S. government debt securities with a maturity of ten years, reflecting investor sentiment on creditworthiness, long-term interest rates, and broader economic expectations. The primary focus is on assessing the yield (interest rate) and the bid-to-cover ratio, which indicates the level of demand from investors.

Frequency

The auction occurs regularly, typically once every month, and results are released shortly after the auction completes, providing a near real-time snapshot of market conditions.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the 10-Year Note Auction because the auction results influence U.S. Treasury yields, which in turn affect borrowing costs across the economy and are closely watched by stock and bond market investors. Strong demand can signal confidence in the economy, leading to lower yields that are bullish for stocks, while weak demand may raise concerns about economic stability and bear negative impacts on equities.

What Is It Derived From?

The results are derived from competitive bids submitted by a range of institutional and retail investors, including banks and pension funds, with a calculation that determines the average yield accepted and the bid-to-cover ratio representing total bids to the amount of notes offered. The auction follows established methodologies defined by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, which includes the use of competitive and non-competitive bidding processes.

Description

The U.S. 10-Year Note Auction provides a crucial pulse on investor appetite for long-term U.S. government debt, with preliminary results indicating immediate market reactions and final yields being clearer upon confirmation. The event highlights critical economic indicators, such as inflation expectations and economic growth forecasts, and influences monetary policy expectations, making it a significant focus for traders and policymakers.

Additional Notes

The auction is considered a coincident economic indicator since it reflects current conditions in the bond market rather than predictions. It is often compared with other primary bond auctions, such as the 2-Year and 5-Year Note Auctions, allowing observers to gauge shifting investor preferences and broader economic trends.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected demand: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected demand: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise