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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Symmetrical triangle break in focus as Fed decision looms
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Symmetrical triangle break in focus as Fed decision looms
EUR/USD is nearing a technical inflection point, where macroeconomic divergence and chart compression converge. While strong data from Germany and France support the Euro (EUR), weak retail sales and Federal Reserve (Fed) uncertainty have dampened momentum.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD
Fed
SEO
USD/JPY bounces back to near 143.30 with Fed’s policy in spotlight
USD/JPY bounces back to near 143.30 with Fed’s policy in spotlight
The USD/JPY pair rebounds to near 143.30 on Wednesday, snapping the three-day losing streak. The pair gains ground as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the board.
China
Fed
BOJ
Japan
USDJPY
The floor is all the Feds today
The floor is all the Feds today
Well there is oil inventory data, but the Fed decision is the main event
Fed
USD
EUR is quietly consolidating in mid/upper 1.13s – Scotiabank
EUR is quietly consolidating in mid/upper 1.13s – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is quietly consolidating within a tight range in the mid/upper1.13s, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD
Banks
CAD steady just below Tuesday’s multimonth high – Scotiabank
CAD steady just below Tuesday’s multimonth high – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is soft, trading marginally lower from Tuesday’s multi-month recovery high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Technical Analysis
Canada
BOC
USDCAD
Banks
USD steady as markets cheer planned US/China trade talks this weekend – Scotiabank
USD steady as markets cheer planned US/China trade talks this weekend – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is steady, attempting stabilization against most of the G10 currencies and clawing back some of its recent weakness against JPY, SEK, AUD, and NZD as we head into Wednesday’s NA session.
Banks
DollarIndex
Technical Analysis
Mexican Peso falls as Fed Chair Powell’s comments come into focus
Mexican Peso falls as Fed Chair Powell’s comments come into focus
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is strengthening against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday,  benefiting from renewed hopes of de-escalation in global trade tensions after positive developments between the United States and China.
Mexico
EmergingMarkets
Currencies
Fed
USDMXN
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar steadies on US-China trade news, Fed up next
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar steadies on US-China trade news, Fed up next
Forex news from the European morning session on May 7, 2025
Session wrap
Wrap Europe
US Dollar goes nowhere while markets write off Fed as non-event
US Dollar goes nowhere while markets write off Fed as non-event
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades broadly flat to marginally higher on Wednesday at around 99.40. That level just a few percentage points away from the fresh five-day low from Tuesday.
TradeWar
UnitedStates
SEO
Macroeconomics
DollarIndex
WTI strives to break above $60 on hopes of de-escalation in US-China trade war
WTI strives to break above $60 on hopes of de-escalation in US-China trade war
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, aims to extend its two-day recovery move above the key resistance of $60.00 during European trading hours on Wednesday.
Oil
China
TradeWar
UnitedStates
WTI
What are the interest rate expectations for the major central banks?
What are the interest rate expectations for the major central banks?
There hasn't been much change in expectations as we continue to wait for the details of the first trade deal
market overview
US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 2 May +11.0% vs -4.2% prior
US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 2 May +11.0% vs -4.2% prior
Latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending 2 May 2025
USD/CAD trades higher around 1.3800, Fed policy in focus
USD/CAD trades higher around 1.3800, Fed policy in focus
The USD/CAD pair rises to near 1.3800 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The Loonie pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) edges up ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision at 18:00 GMT.
USDCAD
Fed
Employment
China
Canada
USD/CNH is likely to trade in a 7.1900/7.2300 range – UOB Group
USD/CNH is likely to trade in a 7.1900/7.2300 range – UOB Group
Outlook is mixed; US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 7.1900/7.2300 range against Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, USD could range-trade for a few days before resuming its decline; the level to watch is at 7.1700, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Technical Analysis
USDCNH
Banks
Bitcoin consolidates above a key level as all-time highs continue to be in sight
Bitcoin consolidates above a key level as all-time highs continue to be in sight
The de-escalation expectations on the tariffs front helped Bitcoin to broke above a key resistance zone as all-time highs come into sight
USD/JPY fails at key resistance – Société Générale
USD/JPY fails at key resistance – Société Générale
USD/JPY struggles to sustain upward momentum, with a failure at key resistance and risks building for a deeper pullback toward 140 and below, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
Technical Analysis
USDJPY
Banks
USD/JPY: Likely to consolidate in a 142.20/144.00 range – UOB Group
USD/JPY: Likely to consolidate in a 142.20/144.00 range – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to consolidate in a 142.20/144.00 range. In the longer run, USD has likely entered a consolidation phase and is likely to trade between 142.20 and 146.70 for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Technical Analysis
USDJPY
Banks
NZD holds firm despite mixed jobs data – BBH
NZD holds firm despite mixed jobs data – BBH
NZD/USD is consolidating recent gains around 0.6000. New Zealand’s Q1 labor market data was mixed and still argues for additional RBNZ easing, BBH FX analysts report.
RBNZ
NewZealand
Banks
NZDUSD
Gold steady in minor loss ahead of Fed rate decision
Gold steady in minor loss ahead of Fed rate decision
Gold (XAU/USD) remains in steady trading on Wednesday around $3,390 at the time of writing and for most part in the European session, ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision and after statements from both China and the United States (US) confirmed that trade talks will kick off this weekend
TradeWar
UnitedStates
SEO
Gold
Commodities
NZD/USD: Chance of breaking above 0.6030 – UOB Group
NZD/USD: Chance of breaking above 0.6030 – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could break above 0.6030 vs US Dollar (USD) but might not be able to maintain a foothold above this level; 0.6060 is probably out of reach.
NZDUSD
Technical Analysis
Banks
Fed's Powell: Right thing to do is await further clarity
Fed's Powell: Right thing to do is await further clarity
US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell explained the decision to leave the policy rate unchanged at the 4.25%–4.50% range following the May meeting and responded to questions during the post-meeting press conference.
Fed
SEO
InterestRate
DollarIndex
The talks between the US and China begin – Commerzbank
The talks between the US and China begin – Commerzbank
After a long period of uncertainty, it is now official: negotiations on a deal between the US and China are going to begin, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.
China
TradeWar
UnitedStates
Banks
Macroeconomics
EU reportedly eyes tariffs on Boeing if trade talks with US go south
EU reportedly eyes tariffs on Boeing if trade talks with US go south
FT reports, citing two people familiar with the matter
Politics
Pound Sterling trades cautiously against USD, Fed-BoE policy decision looms large
Pound Sterling trades cautiously against USD, Fed-BoE policy decision looms large
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades cautiously to near 1.3370 against the US Dollar (USD) during North American trading hours on Wednesday.
China
Fed
SEO
BOE
GBPUSD
EUR/USD shakes off German political wobble – Danske Bank
EUR/USD shakes off German political wobble – Danske Bank
Despite political noise out of Germany, EUR/USD held firm as markets eye the Fed for hints of dovishness and remain positioned for further USD weakness over the year, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.
Currencies
EURUSD
Banks
Merz elected after rocky start, Euro shrugs off drama – Commerzbank
Merz elected after rocky start, Euro shrugs off drama – Commerzbank
While some politically savvy people may have fallen off their chairs yesterday after the first round of voting for the new German Chancellor, the fx market seemed less than impressed, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD
Europe
Eurozone
Banks
Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.
Silver
Commodities
Metals
European gas prices surge on EU energy plan – ING
European gas prices surge on EU energy plan – ING
European natural gas prices displayed plenty of strength yesterday, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
Europe
Energy
Gas
Banks
Fed expected to hold rates amid trade uncertainty – Commerzbank
Fed expected to hold rates amid trade uncertainty – Commerzbank
Apart perhaps from the US President, hardly any market participants are likely in any doubt that the US Fed will leave interest rates unchanged today.
Fed
InterestRate
Banks
Will the Fed offer a dip-buying opportunity today for the S&P 500?
Will the Fed offer a dip-buying opportunity today for the S&P 500?
A pushback against the dovish market pricing could trigger some short-term weakness in the stock market due to overstretched positioning, but the optimism for trade deals will likely trump the negative reaction
S&P Futures
PBOC expands Gold reserves for sixth straight month in April
PBOC expands Gold reserves for sixth straight month in April
The latest data published by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) showed that China continued to build its Gold reserves for a sixth month in a row in April.
CentralBanks
Gold
PBOC
Commodities
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Falls toward ascending channel lower boundary near 0.6450
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Falls toward ascending channel lower boundary near 0.6450
The AUD/USD pair breaks its three-day winning streak, trading around 0.6480 during the European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a persistent bullish bias as the pair is moving upwards within the ascending channel pattern.
Technical Analysis
Majors
AUDUSD
US-China trade talk hopes push oil higher – ING
US-China trade talk hopes push oil higher – ING
News that the US and China will start trade talks this weekend has Brent crude trading higher, extending a relief rally in oil yesterday. Talks would be a sign of potential de-escalation in trade tensions.
Oil
China
Energy
Banks
GBP/USD expected to be between 1.3300 and 1.3400 – UOB Group
GBP/USD expected to be between 1.3300 and 1.3400 – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range vs US Dollar (USD), expected to be between 1.3300 and 1.3400. In the longer run, the current price movements are part of a 1.3240/1.3450 range-trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Technical Analysis
Banks
GBPUSD
Eurozone Retail Sales rise 1.5% YoY in March vs. 1.6% expected
Eurozone Retail Sales rise 1.5% YoY in March vs. 1.6% expected
The Eurozone’s Retail Sales increased 1.5% year-over-year in March, following a revised 1.9% growth in February, according to official data released by Eurostat on Wednesday. Markets estimated a 1.6% figure.
EURUSD
Eurozone
RetailSales
EconomicIndicator
Eurozone March retail sales -0.1% vs 0.0% m/m expected
Eurozone March retail sales -0.1% vs 0.0% m/m expected
Latest data released by Eurostat - 7 May 2025
USD: Dollar rally unimpressive so far – ING
USD: Dollar rally unimpressive so far – ING
Last night's news that the US and China would begin formal trade talks on 10-11 May to de-escalate the tariff war saw the dollar briefly spike 0.4/0.5%.
Technical Analysis
Banks
DollarIndex
China: Imports come into play – Standard Chartered
China: Imports come into play – Standard Chartered
China’s exports likely to plunge, but imports may also slow, mitigating the tariff impact on net exports. Import intensity has been falling due to ‘onshoring’ of production and economic rebalancing.
China
TradeBalance
Banks
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